Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.479891 4.082240 4.749386 5.541919 6.456535 7.477675 8.702924
2025-10-05 2.675165 3.519326 4.555784 5.916209 7.648535 9.773869 12.571528
2025-10-12 2.087461 3.024262 4.277777 6.064176 8.528548 11.789923 16.410853
2025-10-19 1.703166 2.680364 4.087316 6.236367 9.405698 13.870544 20.589036
2025-10-26 1.391778 2.358467 3.843858 6.255558 10.025468 15.631233 24.513534
2025-11-02 1.116120 2.025819 3.510161 6.058749 10.258963 16.816172 27.697552
2025-11-09 0.887650 1.719235 3.154939 5.752061 10.247074 17.585802 30.289626
2025-11-16 0.741408 1.524397 2.947878 5.647954 10.532309 18.833289 33.754584
2025-11-23 0.631096 1.372752 2.788020 5.593823 10.881423 20.205938 37.555626
2025-11-30 0.576427 1.318740 2.797821 5.847360 11.805419 22.658318 43.469641
2025-12-07 0.505560 1.216708 2.696207 5.867785 12.289227 24.364990 48.215026
2025-12-14 0.441984 1.117540 2.583126 5.845267 12.680123 25.930777 52.847041
2025-12-21 0.386641 1.028076 2.480078 5.837037 13.116616 27.665688 58.058070
2025-12-28 0.376432 1.044805 2.613370 6.357979 14.716280 31.852359 68.494022
2026-01-04 0.344934 1.002152 2.604723 6.562290 15.668470 34.842610 76.853079
2026-01-11 0.316823 0.962359 2.595948 6.764108 16.638894 37.968930 85.801087
2026-01-18 0.282730 0.898918 2.518492 6.790552 17.215064 40.319711 93.355507
2026-01-25 0.242143 0.807816 2.354939 6.579997 17.211393 41.410861 98.314349
2026-02-01 0.202635 0.710363 2.156812 6.249350 16.873629 41.717576 101.572914
2026-02-08 0.177162 0.650130 2.048978 6.137080 17.055452 43.218525 107.650657
2026-02-15 0.156895 0.601807 1.966021 6.078659 17.364446 45.043938 114.644837
2026-02-22 0.149159 0.594042 2.000442 6.352642 18.570706 49.125070 127.301261
2026-03-01 0.134950 0.560108 1.949798 6.374719 19.107814 51.627733 136.409107